Last Call At The Mall?

I was reminded the other day by a great friend and colleague that mine was an early voice crying in the wilderness, “Make straight the paths of e-tailing.” Or some such. It’s true. Since the early 2000s, I, hmmm, harassed my clients with the specter of FreshDirect, Amazon Prime and a host of other sites offering the promise of radical convenience, selection and quality at an obviously fair price. Even those that failed, like Streamline and Urban Fetch, offered a glimpse of the reality slouching towards us.

            Certainly, many of the woes facing all manner of retail can be laid at the feet of the internet. But not all. If we look for a moment at the big growth of online sales, it is fair to generalize that it comes from stuff we need and know we need, but from which the joy of discovery has been sucked dry. We don’t need to buy our Bounty, Charmin and Tide and schlep it home, if the push of a Dash button does the trick. Ditto a Ralph Laurenesque polo or mom jeans. Retailers and brands are paying a steep price for having commoditized their designs, price promoted ad nauseam and de-professionalized their sales people to minimum wage, disenchanted and disengaged order takers.

            But still: Retail is in more of a free fall than these factors can account for. I am beginning to suspect a confluence of factors of which the movement to online is simply the most obvious. What else?

·      Well, there’s the lingering effects of The Great Recession. I suspect these are under-understood. Just as the generation that muddled through the Depression did not come out unscathed, the multiple generations who got genuinely shocked and awed by the housing crisis and its aftermath may have developed a different relationship to ‘getting and spending.’

·      There may be a natural erosion in our consumer society’s belief in the power of retail therapy. The nation is aging and with aging can come the hard-won wisdom suggesting that one more “it” bag or pair of designer heels or bespoke candle won’t give us the endorphin rush it once did. We may have built up a tolerance to the drug of the old mantra, “See it, like it, buy it.” We may just be chock-a-block with stuff.

·      Indeed, the best-seller lists and blogosphere are filled with titles stressing the benefits of de-cluttering. There’s nothing quite like the cold shower of sending clothing with price tags still attached to Good Will to serve as a wake-up call to foolishness.

         What to do? Consider the possibility: What if the thrill really is gone? What if we’ve fallen out of love with our next ‘gotta have it?’ Can we reignite passion? What does that mean for your brand, business, consumer? Or is it "Last call at the mall?" As in, last one to leave, please turn out the lights.

Kate

The Retail Endgame: Items in this Mirror Are Closer Than They Appear

One of the more fascinating aspects of being the type of person the media calls for comments on retail news is noticing what masquerades as “news.” Kmart and Sears announce they are probably no longer viable as retail entities. Ralph Lauren closes its Fifth Avenue stores, amidst scores of others. J. Crew is in trouble. Ditto Tiffany. The Limited shuts down all its stores. Yesterday’s breaking news was the trifecta: Michael Kors announces the shuttering of 125 or so more stores, Bleecker Street in New York is sports more “for lease” signs than even Soho. The LA Times forecasts 25 percent of malls will close in the next five years.

            Sometimes I think it must be like the “breaking news” during the Industrial Revolution. In that case, it would have been a different, but no less relentless call to Stop the Presses!: Steam able to provide power! Big factories able to make products more efficiently! Women and children become factory workers! People leave farms for cities. Economists note decline in home made goods. Local Smithy goes out of business. Trains replace wagon trains! There are time zones!

            In hindsight, it all seems so obvious.

            It’s foresight that matters, of course. Retailers seem to have lost their vision. Somewhere around 2000. The retail landscape has been changing for at least that long. How can this still be “news?” It’s just become obvious, irrefutable, inescapable. Probably because it’s coming at us at an escalating rate. Definitely because it shows up on a balance sheet. No more hiding in plain sight. There’s a law of physics which covers this, no doubt.

            My hypothesis: No retailer who hasn’t figured out by now how to enchant customers wherever they shop with the power and purpose of their brands will be a retailer in five years. No mall developer who isn’t seriously trying to partner with movie theatres, bowling alleys, fine dining, local cheese mongers, craft breweries and boutique chocolatiers to reimagine the purpose and power of their locations will be a mall developer in five years.

            We have seen the (retail) revolution and it is us and it is now.  Call me for further comments! 

Kate

Hey! Look! I'm Helping Build The Earth's Most Customer-Centric Company...

Hello Kate,

I'm XYZ of Amazon.com's Executive Customer Relations. I appreciate you taking the time to speak with me today.

I wanted to thank you again for your diligence in attempting to locate the proper owner of this personalized mug. I'm going to work with the packaging information you provided and see if we can link it to the original order. I'll be back in touch with you in the beginning half of next week.
Of course, you can respond directly to this email if you have any additional information or need any other help with this matter.
Have a wonderful evening!

We'd appreciate your feedback. Please use the links below to tell us about your experience today.
Best regards,

Thank you for your inquiry. Did I solve your problem?
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Hello Kate,

I tried calling you early, but missed you. I just wanted to check in and let you know we're still working on locating the correct owner of the mug. I noticed you said you'd received the mug in place of stainless steel cleaner and wanted to make sure you ended up receiving your full order.
If you're still missing any items, please respond to this email and we'll work to make sure it's corrected.
Have a great evening!

We'd appreciate your feedback. Please use the links below to tell us about your experience today.

Best regards,

Thank you for your inquiry. Did I solve your problem?
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Thanking you. I appreciate the follows. Nope I did not receive the stainless steel cleaner. That was the order that was marked as delivered, and told me to check my garage or wait 36 hours. I also did not receive the subscription order of Caesars dog food, which was supposed to ship around 5/12. Happily I found the cleaner at my neighborhood Duane Reade. The dog food I reordered from you all. 

Hi Kate,

Thanks for responding so quickly! I'm happy to hear you've received your cleaner, though it was delivered incorrectly. To help compensate for any inconvenience, I've extended your Amazon Prime membership by one month. The membership will now renew on August 17, 2017.

I checked on your subscription for the Cesar dog food and found it's currently set so 3 units arrive around the 12th each month. The last subscription order was #111-8788312-3357814, created on 27 April 2017 and arrived on 9 May 2017. If there's a better date, you can always view or change your delivery day to something that works better for you on the "Your Subscribe & Save Items" page:

I'll keep you updated on our search for the owner of the mug. If you need to reach me directly, you can respond to this email.

Have a lovely evening!
We'd appreciate your feedback. Please use the links below to tell us about your experience today.
Best regards,

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1. Eager to clarify, if my email wasn't clear:1. I didn't "receive" my cleaner (from Amazon). I walked over to Duane Reade and bought it (last week).

2. I know the Cesar dog food is supposed to arrive around the 12th of the month. What I am saying that this delivery also hit the Bermuda triangle of "non-delivered but marked as delivered." I did not get it on or about May 12. I simply ordered another case which Amazon says will be delivered tomorrow. I see the next shipment will arrive on or about the 12th of June. Fingers crossed. 

Hi Kate,

Oh! I'm so sorry I misunderstood. I didn't recognize the store name. To make this right, I've refunded $20.56 for the stainless steel cleaner you didn't receive in your order, #114-4957277-0968209. I've also refunded $49.27 for the dog food in order 111-8788312-3357814 that wasn't located. These refunds will process back to your original payment method in 2-3 business days.

I have high hopes for your June shipment, but please contact our customer service if an order isn't able to be located. Our customer service team is always happy to help you by phone. Visit our Help pages (http://www.amazon.com/help), click the "Contact Us" button, enter your phone number through the Phone tab, and we'll call you. Customers outside the United States can call 1-206-266-2992. We're available 24 hours a day, 7 days a week.

I'll keep you updated if we learn anything about the correct owner of the mug. Have a great day!

We'd appreciate your feedback. Please use the links below to tell us about your experience today.

Best regards,

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Thanks again for your patience. As you know, I've been working with our shipping facility. They've identified the error and have assured me the issue can be considered resolved. The mug you received doesn't need to be returned, so you're welcome to keep, donate or dispose of it--whichever option is most appropriate and convenient for you.

Your diligence in trying to locate the rightful owner is to be commended, and we’ve sent a small token of our appreciation. It’s currently expected to arrive on Monday, 29 May.
Again, thank you for all your help. Have a wonderful weekend!

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Do You Know This Couple?

If you read my blog last week, you might remember a post script asking for help in figuring out how to return (the above) unordered item to Amazon. It seems a personalized, emotionally resonant item, perhaps designed for a Mother’s Day moment. I received a great deal of guidance, happily. Unhappily, none of it unsnarls the robotic intransigence of Amazon. While not a great finding for the couple on the mug, it may point out the looming Achilles Heel of the giant.

            Bill Bean, a terrific insights-driven business strategist, offered to walk me through how exactly to find the human help button, which he was sure could be found on my account page. I couldn’t find it (chalk up one hour of my weekend irretrievably invested in somebody else’s Mother’s Day). Bill spent an hour last Tuesday attempting to show me the error of my ways, to no avail. There simply was no algorithm or way to reach a human capable of allowing me to return something I hadn’t ordered.

            There’s a help FAQ suggesting there is such a thing, but it dead-ends without allowing me to print out a return label. Equally, when I realized the mug had been sent to me instead of stainless steel cleaner, I could get to an FAQ purporting to tell me what I should do if an order shows as delivered (on the “Track My Package”) link, but hasn’t been received. Ostensibly helpful, but again: A blind alley. The advice (genuinely exotic for a denizen of a Manhattan high rise): “Check the garage. Look in the mailbox. Ask a neighbor. Wait 36 hours.” There are no other options, e.g. the notion it really wasn’t delivered is simply impossible for the algorithm to contemplate. All advice is dispensed with certainty, clear graphics, smart, intuitive wording. Absolutely no chink in the armor: Human help is unnecessary, since we’ve already thought of everything. Except, of course, this haunting mug I can’t bear to toss.  

            Bill told me a story about a friend prepping a dinner party with the culinary advice and counsel of Alexa. Frustrated after many glitches and false starts, the woman yelled at the device: “Alexa, you ******.” To which Alexa replied, “There’s no reason to use that language. I’m trying to help you.”

            Bill and I agreed: The retailer has figured out how to anticipate glitches and has decided to sooth but not solve dilemmas of its own creation. We fantasized how the indefatigably calm Alexa will ultimately metastasize into an in-home autocrat: She will decide we should be listening to opera, not hip-hop, cooking this, not that, meeting our exercise goals before she’ll authorize the drones to drop off the Oreos.  

            Meanwhile, it was our own colleague Erin Foster who suggested we post a photo on the blog: Do you know this couple? Send it out to your network. Let’s get this mug to its rightful home. Human to human.

Kate

J. Crew World or Oreo Universe? You decide.

A recent Modern Love column in The New York Times, written by a college student, provides a compelling illustration of at least one of the issues facing those of us who work in the world of brand development. Consumers are decreasingly interested in our brands, because they are increasingly interested in the curation of their own brand. And, like brand managers throughout the world, they ultimately confront the challenge of constraint: Stringent brand identity guidelines subvert the notion of growth.

If you spend eight years building a house (no matter how uncomfortable or ugly it may be, no matter how impractical or poorly lit), it becomes nearly impossible to knock it down. That is about how long I put into building my social media presence, into becoming the cool girl I showcase on Instagram and Facebook. I built her without blueprints, not knowing that she would become a wall with no doors.

            The writer may be able to break “the chains I forged in life,” as Marley tried to warn Scrooge. For brands, like J. Crew, however, the challenge becomes more confounding, as witness the recent article in The New Yorker: $2 billion dollars in debt, laying off 150, closing Bridal (a genuine tragedy for teen girls seeking prom dresses, for sure). Here’s a brand that so narrowly defined its vision and audience that when the market moved on from mall-based preppy chic, it is left high and dry, seemingly imprisoned in its own design. How to escape the ‘wall with no doors?’

            I think the place to look for role models is the packaged food aisle of the grocery store. Look what Oreos is doing. It is not constrained by a “cream-filled, chocolate wafer sandwich cookie” brand identity. Nope. Here come Oreo Fireworks, in time for summer. Here come Oreo Waffles & Syrup to help us relive breakfast, anytime. Wait! There it is in ice cream! No look, over there: It’s in crumbles over our favorite yogurt spot. Now it’s thin. Now it’s double stuffed. Whoosh! It’s a candy bar.  It is a brand unleased: part of a passionate Brand Liberation Movement bringing moments of joy, whenever, wherever, to whomever. No walls here, just doorways serving as portals into the brand’s multi-dimensional world. Hershey is doing it too, as witness the move beyond the candy aisle and into snack bars and cookies with its Cookie Layer Crunch varietals.

            Lesson: Brand and expand through the emotion. Not tightly controlled ‘look and feel’ edicts that try for cool and end up, well, stranded in a room without doors, in a mall without customers.

Kate

P.S. I need some help here: I received a white coffee mug from Amazon. It has a picture on it of someone’s parents (circa 1930) and, I suspect, was meant to be a Mother’s Day present. But not for me. The package was never supposed to be sent to me, yet it was, so it doesn’t show up on my “orders” listing. And, well, we know that Jeff Bezos doesn’t want human connection, so I can’t find a way to alert a human being that I have the mug and would like to return it. There was no return address on the package in which the mug arrived. Augh. Any advice?

Branding is Not a SitCom Happy Days Process

When John Donne and other Metaphysical poets are summarized, it is for their willingness to ‘yoke together by violence two unlikely objects.’ My blog today is more of a violent troika yoking. How else to understand the emerging brand world?

·      The first unlikely object is a 1995 quote from Steve Jobs, referenced in yesterday’s edition of The New York Times: “The companies forget what it means to make great products. The product sensibility and the product genius that brought them to that monopolistic position gets rotted out by people running these companies who have no conception of a good product versus a bad product. They have no conception of the craftsmanship that’s required to take a good idea and turn it into a good product. And they really have no feeling in their hearts usually about wanting to really help the customers.”

·      The second unlikely object: The risk/reward ratio recalibration wrought by social media, as exemplified by United (and other) Airlines. They are trapped by the that rot Jobs spoke to more than 20 years ago, attempting to manage a massive business by relying on draconian policies and procedures manuals designed to ensure, hmmm, employee compliance and financial calculus trump empathy. Whoops.

·      The third: A trip to Brooklyn to see the production of Samuel Beckett’s Happy Days, staring Diane Wiest. Winnie is trapped in Act I in a huge mound of earth, under a brutally, eternally sunny sky, aka social media. She’s as alone as any modern CEO, with just a howl or newspaper headline emanating from her mostly hidden husband Willy to help her along. She perseveres in the daily duties she’s fashioned for herself: brushing her teeth, applying lipstick, unpacking her bag and repacking it, considering her revolver, forgetting perhaps to brush her hair, but always putting on her hat and furiously recalling one-time onlookers who suggested somebody should help her out. By Act II, she’s covered up to her head. Totally immobilized.

Winnie in Happy Days presents a terrifying, yet metaphorically apt vision of what Jobs described. In marketing terms, she expresses the plight of brands trapped in their own dogma and hoping for the best, augmented by the occasional happy memory of past greatness. Nobody starts out hoping to become the ‘rot.’ But, as Winnie puts describes her own dichotomy of self: “To be always what I am - and so changed from what I was.” 

Let’s all agree: Our job is not to put on our hat each day. Our job is to hear the whispers of our brands and the people they are designed to help.  Then, find where those voices align and lead us.

Kate

Brand Whispering

In Praise of Sticky Brands: Ones We Stick to (Not Those Which Stick it To Us)

Now that The New York Times appears (at last) intent on covering the looming ‘retailmageddon,’ as witness two, count them, two major features last weekend alone, it seems the rest of us need no longer worry we’ll be viewed as mere Cassandras or lone voices ‘crying out in the wilderness to make straight the path' of the shopper. The larger question, of course, still hovers: Wither retail? Wither fashion? Wither fragrance, beauty? Wither, indeed, community?

            The Great Question from everyone who calls us is no longer simply, “is the mall going away?” Or, “What do we do about Amazon?” Those were the questions of five years ago. Now the Great Question is “Is Sector Growth Possible When the Entire Category Contracts?”

            Interestingly, Monday’s edition of The New York Times carried an op-ed piece by David Brooks which identifies one of the most significant, indeed, hopeful pathways through the imploding (and more usually self-immolating) retail and brand minefields. He writes about “thick” and “thin” organizations, e.g. the ‘thick’ ones appeal to our economic and moral compasses, rather than the ‘thins’ we simply use to advance our self-interest, whether as an employee or customer. Brooks terms it differently than we have, but he got it right.

            In our recent work, we’ve identified winning brands we’ve termed ‘sticky,’ i.e., those customers and employees stick with, no matter what. Some folks think about this phenomenon purely in terms of ‘purpose led and fed’ brands, as in framing an emotionally resonant and relevant mission as a recruitment and retention tool. Yes. And. We’ve found something else: As the songwriters of Beauty and the Beast put it, “There’s something there that wasn’t there before.”

            It’s not the kind of mission/vision thing that’s an essential papering over of the far more foundational belief that the sole purpose of the business is to “generate superior shareholder ROI.” I had one CEO of a prestige insurance firm tell me he meets other CEOs all the time who look around at their human resources executive and say, “Mission? Vision? Yeah, we’ve got one of those, I think. Don’t we?” Having a sense of heartfelt purpose is not a check mark for a ‘Corporate To Do’ list. It’s a passion. Sticky brands are passion brands.

            As one loyal-to-the-point-of-evangelism consumer told us: I only buy Tom’s Shoes, because I believe they want to make shoes for people who don't have shoes. At all.  Tom's needs my help to do it.” That’s a sticky brand, for customers and employees alike. Consumption that matters. That’s today’s better mousetrap. The world will beat a (straight) path to sticky brand doors. Even when the anchor stores are shuttered, the mall has closed and Main Street looks like a gap-toothed six-year old’s smile. Sticky brands will still be smiling.

The Times, It Is A Changing....How About You, Big Brands?

The other morning as I was reading my copy of The New York Times, I was more than a little amazed to see (on page 3! – of the first section!) advice on how to be truly mindful while making coffee. “Smell the beans.” “Notice the clarity of the water.” I thought, “Where am I and what have they done to my Times?” It was my own truly mindful experience: I was sitting exactly where I usually sit in the living room, in my favorite chair, at 6:30 a.m. and I was keenly aware that my world had been rocked.

            This is not what I come to The Times to learn about. This is not the ‘news that’s fit to print.’ It’s not news at all. And yet. And yet. It is part of The Times reimagining of itself. In real time. In front of us. It’s of a piece with the new backgrounding info from various journalists on page two, explaining deep detail about their reporting. It is of a piece with the real time conversational commentary among journalists during news conferences. It is of a piece with audio and video coverage, web events, film clubs and travels with journalists aboard the QM2. It’s of a piece with the daily email delivery of “What you need to know this morning.” And gee whiz: The Times’ is selling more papers.

            Now there’s a fair argument to be made that The Times’ circulation uptick owes more to the current resident of The White House than it does to any of these real and imagined advances. All media are making gains, print and broadcast alike. But, what The Times is doing is what many brands fail to do: They are preparing for next. They’ve been doing it for the past five years at least. Preparing for worst case scenarios has positioned them well for the best case.

            As the news cycle hurls more people towards The Times, the newspaper has done the heavy lifting of re-imagining itself to ‘catch and retain’ (not release) new readers. It created multiple path ways into the brand to capture and sustain interest. It has leveraged its core competency as a news gather brand to innovate its delivery beyond the thud of a physical paper to the physical threshold. It has put itself in the position to benefit from our current news obsession by being unwilling to sit on the sidelines and decry the decay of print media.

            Meanwhile, in conversation with a client the other day, I heard him telling me about making coffee early in the morning and how he uses that time alone to notice the grind of the coffee, the way the plastic lid on the industrial strength club store container seems designed to easily release the aroma and what this ritual has to do with the start of his work day. I knew whereof he spoke. Thanks to The Times, that is.

Wait! Wh-a-a-at? The Sky Really Is Falling!

And now for a look at Modern American retail news, just for 2017.

            Macy’s. Shuttering 68 more stores.

            JC Penney. 138 more closing.

            Kmart & Sears shutting down 150 more, whilst sharing the news they may not be able to continue operations.

            HH Gregg: Say good bye to 88 stores and three distribution centers.

            Abercrombie & Fitch: Whoosh! There go 60 stores.

            Guess: 60 stores gone.

            Crocs: 160 stores closed.

            American Apparel. Gone.

            The Limited. All 250 US stores gone.

            Wet Seal: 171 shops (all of ‘em) gone.

            BCBG: 120 gone. Game Shop: 150 done. Radio Shack: 552 gone. Staples: 70 gone. CVS: 70 gone.

            Ralph Lauren, shutting Fifth Avenue showcase.

            Tiffany, firing CEO after poor sales results.

            Neiman-Marcus, on the block.

            Can there be any lingering doubt that the retail footprint in this country is in radical contraction mode? Any hope that collateral damage won’t impact the bottom lines of all those QSR foot court chains? Any debate that the classic American mall walking shopper is slouching towards extinction? The survival of the fittest calls for adaptation worthy of a Galapagos finch. Different island, different sustenance, different finch. No ‘one size fits all’ any longer.

            The reasons are as varied as the brands. Greedy management. Private equity slash and burn. Obtuse executives with three-year contracts and bonus thresholds to meet – at any cost. Consolidated buying offices unable to respond to local preferences. Business models predicated on a heroin-like addiction to promotional pricing spirals. Sales staff training shifted to vendors. Sales staff reductions. Deprofessionalization of the sales staff. Homogenous design statements. An aging demographic uninspired by more conspicuous acquisition. The economic downturn. The online magic of Amazonesque convenience. The reduction in print vehicles dedicated to brand lust development. The consumers’ lack of patience with the legacy fashion cycle. The aftermarket ‘previously owned’ markets for cars, jewelry, and nearly everything eBayable.

            An entirely new model is demanded, my friends. One that re-imagines the relevance of stuff. One that entirely “blue oceans’ the notion of what people will be willing to leave home for, once shopping is entirely off the table. Come on, people! Heads out of the sand. It’s happening. Indeed, it’s happened. We see the problem. It is us. Time for solutions. Email me now, please. Tick-tock. Tick-Tock.

Teens on Screens: The Good News

A March 13 article in The New York Times suggests that maybe, perhaps, kinda sorta, cellphone usage among teens is one of the larger reasons drug use is declining among that cohort. As the article frames it: “Are teenagers using drugs less in part because they are constantly stimulated and entertained by their computers and phones?”

         This is an intriguing notion. Particularly if the once casual descriptor of a smartphone as “my drug of choice” is somehow causal. The new business model moves from drug cartel to pusher to brand of choice, e.g. iPhone or Android to Verizon, Sprint, T-Mobile, to SnapChat, YouTube and Facebook. Brands that offer Wi-Fi in-store feel (and feed) the rush, I’m sure.

         Welcome to the emerging world of marketing of uncontrolled substances. Welcome to the world of experience-based engagement vs. consumption-based product use and replenishment. Based on my daughter’s and her friends’ behaviors, SnapChat is never used up. It’s the gift that keeps on giving. (How it makes enough money, of course, to sustain its stock price is a question best left for another day.)

         Unintended outcomes can still be good ones. SnapChat has branded if not yet monetized the “paradox of distant closeness,” delivering vibrant social connection in the midst of the well-documented emotional isolation inherent to high schoolers: A time fraught with the potential ostracizing pitfalls, pratfalls and petty grievances writ large in yearbook style fonts.

         Back-in-the-day, word on the street was that Big Tobacco was systematically trademarking and copyrighting various names and formulations to be prepared for the moment when marijuana became legal. That moment appears to have come and gone. According to The Times report, marijuana usage, while more socially acceptable for the culture at large, has declined among 8th and 10th graders, as have usage of “cocaine, hallucinogens, ecstasy and crack” among all teens. The trend seems to agnostically appeal to all economic and scholastic strata. Alcohol consumption is reported down, as well. Ditto tobacco usage. If you’re intent on not breaking your “streak,” you don’t have time for anything that takes your eyes off the screen.

         The next big opportunity area: Hey! SnapChat: Figure out a version of the model that works for the aging cohort of heroin users, reaching epidemic proportions in multiple communities.

Calling Faith Popcorn: You Are Needed Now

When Faith Popcorn famously coined the term “Cocooning” to describe a deep nesting gravitational force pulling consumers into their homes, she did so by noticing her own behavior: “The profound desire to sleep through my disco nap.” I suspect that “I’m noticing myself behaving a bit differently” is a primary data point for many of us looking to understand how we’re fitting into the world swirling around us. One “me moment” is not sufficient, of course, to map a genuine consumer trend. But it is essential: We have to know it to be true at a gut level. Then, we can begin to imagine and to recognize other proof points coalescing into a new narrative, emerging much as a vision in a pointillist’s painting.

            Exhibit A of the power of thus understanding Trends writ with a capital T: Martha Stewart credits Faith with – through having identified cocooning – giving her the external corroboration for her fledgling Martha Stewart Living business model. Exhibit B: Stewart’s new meal delivery service, partnered with AmazonFresh. What better proof points of the longevity and power of Trend-based business thinking? Marketing to the Deep Cocoon. The current term of art may be "the bubble," but I think Cocoon gets at its core: There's a need for self-protection baked into the behavior. One hopes it augers, as well, the notion of a butterfly emerging at the end of the incubation.

            And beyond business: What became true at such a primal level for many of us this November is that we’re out of touch with the rest of the country. And, the rest of the country is out of touch with us. Why? We’ve snuggled into our information cocoons (aka comfort zones), bifurcated along either Fox or MSNBC battle lines as our television news source of choice. Getting our social media news feed from Breitbart or Huffington Post. Listening to Rush Limbaugh or NPR in the car. Relying on conversations with PLU (People Like Us) to reinforce a view we believe is accurate and intelligent, but maybe less worldly and certainly less inclusive than we imagine.

            We see marketers trying hard to straddle the barricades: advertising on the Super Bowl with spots that may be issue-oriented, but may also not be. Anheuser-Busch says “No, it’s not about Immigration as a policy, it’s about one immigrant as a founder,” a founder, that is, of a company now wholly owned by 3G Capital, the Brazilian investment firm on an acquisition (and job- and thus cost-cutting) spree. 84 Lumber’s “Journey” was simultaneously championed as a paean to the hopes of immigrants when they head towards America and a “No, I actually voted for Trump and this wasn’t supposed to be controversial at all” weirdest of weird disclaimers from the company. Then, too, there was Audi’s “Daughter” equal pay ad, which was polarizing too, garnering both “praise and fury” according to reviews. Trying to have it both ways turns leading brands into pretzels (at best), hypocritical contortionists (at worst) and falling into the abyss (at a minimum). 

            While Faith wrote first about Cocooning in the 1970s, she later tracked the development of that Trend as it morphed into the mobile cocoon, e.g. SUVs, and the armored cocoon, e.g. the place we never have to leave and want to protect. Amazon has proven over and over we far prefer our mercantile cocoon to the mall. NetFlix has made self-evident we’re happy to be an audience of one in our entertainment cocoon.

            We may now be in the world of the thought cocoon, burrowed down and unwilling to let disagreement in. The need to feel safe amidst the slings and arrows of outrageous reality is clear and present. But where can it possibly go from here?  Perhaps we may be heartened by Facebook’s and Google’s recent volunteering to at least explore how to add information diversity to our news feeds via reworked algorithms. Perhaps becoming less about the stories our past behavior suggests we want to read and more about wisdom the looming future mandates we need to know. This is probably bigger news than we realize. Faith, is there an algorithm in your future?

A Redefinition of Character

I have rarely, if ever, felt “sorry” for one of what used to be called ‘the big eight’ accounting firms, and is now probably better termed ‘the big one’ or perhaps two. However, Sunday night’s Oscar best picture meltdown is the exception that proves the rule. Human error is the unforgiveable sin, in this period of Lent, it appears. These folks have counted the ballots and delivered the envelopes correctly for 83 years. They made one huge mistake and it’s off with their heads. CEOs of media companies say they should be fired. Others simply tsk, tsk, tsk.

            Human error. It’s a thing.

            Stuff happens.

            But we are living in a time of ever-escalating intolerance of messy humanity: I get testy (rather more than, actually) when the Verizon FiOS equipment doesn’t work upon arrival and the 1800-recording tells me to contact them on line. If I could get on line, I wouldn’t have a problem. By the time I get to a human being, I’m, hmmm, what’s the word? Let’s go with furious.

            My brother gets frustrated when the workman who promised to show up on Tuesday simply doesn’t. And doesn’t call. And then shows up the next week, as if there’d never been an appointment.

            The stranger on the street corner waiting to cross starts swearing a blue streak when the cab making the turn splashes him. Did the cabbie decide to spray him? I think not. There’s pooling water. There’s a couple of tons of machinery going at a fast clip around a corner. Stuff happens.

            These are each tiny moments in the vast scheme of things. The daily agita. Anyone who has ever fallen flat on her face when walking down the street because she wasn’t paying attention (we name no names here), anyone who has only seen the typo when the PowerPoint is up on the screen, anyone who has ever made a joke that falls flat or even offends knows that our outrageous fortunes are filled with self-inflicted slings and arrows. We just don’t make our blunders in front of a billion or so people, live. Or watch them endlessly repeated on YouTube, late night television or the morning news. Until we do. 

            I think we missed the lede here. At a time when there is just so much to be nervous and on-edge about, the really cool thing was how the LaLa Land folks handled the moment. The spontaneity of their respect for Moonlight authenticates it. No way to ‘train’ for such a moment. This is the real deal. The way the Moonlight folks handled the moment. Again. Celebratory and respectful. The way, indeed, the Price Waterhouse Cooper folks handled the moment and its aftershocks. It is startling really. I suspect inspiring.

            Character may well be how we behave when no one is looking. It is also how we behave when everyone is watching. When we’re embarrassed. When we’re disappointed. When the slings and arrows really, really hurt. It’s probably time to admit (are you paying attention CEO of Uber?) that there is no longer such a thing as a time when nobody’s looking.  

Brand Relationships: The Ultimate "Yes!" Friends

My morning Quaker instant oatmeal package tells me, “Every day brings the possibility to be amazing.”

            My soothing Hall’s cough drop joins in with “Conquer today! Push on!”

            Ditto the Dove chocolate wrapper: “Satisfy your sense of surprise.”

            My FitBit alerts me to further great news: I have qualified for the Himalayan Badge.

            Meanwhile, as I field incoming affirmations from my brand friends, my human friends deal with the five stages of grief occasioned by the current political environment: Anger, Denial, Bargaining, Depression and, ultimately, perhaps, but not yet, Acceptance. Nowhere do they mention their joyous euphoria over the adventure tomorrow brings. No. That is the purview of brands seeking, as one colleague tells me, a “relationship” with me.

            Which makes me wonder, are these encouragements simply a way for brands to give me a “Congratulations for Participating” Atta Girl certificate? Or, are they acknowledgement we live in stress-filled times and we need all the support we can get? Perhaps, they are further illustration we live in a culture so fragile no disagreement can be brooked. We watch only the news channels that corroborate our world view, whether that’s Fox or MSNBC. We read only the editorial pages and newspapers which ratify our opinions. We maintain friendships with only those who agree strongly with us. (Time magazine’s new cover story reports political rancor-based “unfriending” on Facebook is the newest social media trend.)

            Brands seeking relationship inhabit a pristine landscape ‘where seldom is heard a discouraging word and the skies are not cloudy all day.’ But the rest of us live in a more problematic terrain. Thus, this week’s question: Can real relationship exist without complexity, conflict and even disagreement, among humans or our commercial doppelgangers? Howard Schultz seems willing to trust us to vote our conscience by supporting his brand vision or not. Remember when Nike pioneered this space with its challenge to stop our whining and "Just Do It." Which of today's brands is willing to speak truth to our power? Which other brands dare to court controversy? Which ones dare we make our friends

Is the World Too Much With Us?

Celebrity tweets from the marches. Super Bowl ads. Golden Globes acceptance speeches.  Where does free speech end and our right to ‘just be entertained’ begin?

            Big brands are celebrities of a sort in a consumer society, so when they wade in using the commercial ‘bully pulpit’ available only to those with $5 million to spend to articulate their message in 30 seconds is that fair? Or simply an invasion of our right to eat guac and drink beer unencumbered for one Sunday night by the unremitting onslaught of political controversies, moral dilemmas and philosophical grievances careening towards us daily. The nation seems split on this issue, as on virtually every other. Just what was needed: One more thing to be divided about.

            World class entertainers capture our imagination through their mercurial talents, performing as a tightly wired fashion magazine editor one moment, a British prime minister the next, then a stern and severe nun, then a holocaust ‘survivor’ who didn’t really survive, then a spurned lover, then a…you get the drift. Amazing performances that, when lashed together, craft a reverence that confounds politics, until it doesn’t. Key moments of our lives have played out within the context of the way stations of her career. Until our projection of a lifelong relationship with the actress is shattered – or reinforced.

                A line from a Wordsworth sonnet haunts me now:

                                The world is too much with us; late and soon,

                                Getting and spending, we lay waste our powers

            With so many of the basic premises of what it means to be an American in spasm, it seems only fair that all voices be heard on issues that confound. Protestors, for sure. But also brands and celebrities. In an ecosystem which values meritocracy, let’s not penalize great businesspeople, entertainers, writers or athletes by demanding they sacrifice their brains on the altar of our opinions. One of the great powers of a consumer society is our aggregated ability to transmute belief into attention getting financial impact. Thus, the getting and spending doesn’t always lay waste. We may ‘vote our pocketbook’ in elections, but we ding revenue forecasts through our ability to boycott or support businesses and celebrities with whom we disagree or agree.

            When angry debate about the building of walls is what confronts us now, I say the breaking down of ‘the fourth wall’ is to be relished, late and soon.

Turning On & Tuning In? What Consumers are REALLY Doing

In my seemingly endless quest to keep count of how many retail chains are closing stores – this just in: Wet Seal shutting down another 154, Ralph Lauren another 50 – I’m equally endlessly trying to figure out what shoppers are doing instead of shopping. Yes, yes. Of course, they are buying on line. But what is taking the place of shopping: Those once charming moments of escape to make-believe spent perusing goods with friends and stopping for a frozen yogurt. What takes the place of that aimless wandering for which malls and main streets seemed once to be preternaturally designed?

            Sure they go to movies and restaurants and museums and music festivals. But that’s not the same as touching the goods and debating the relative merits of this blouse versus that one, these shoes or those, that jacket or OMG THIS ONE! Or considering this sofa and that bookcase. Those dishes, but not that glassware. Or the self-curated specificity of artisanal cheeses and fresh baked breads selected with diligence for friends on their way over for cocktails before a night out.

            Of course, we work from home, we buy at home, we order in, we binge watch there. Money is being earned and spent. But where’s the thrill? The elation? The fantasy of the dressing room. The imaginings of the person I would be if I really wore this? The becoming my new self-moments with a more grown up look? The first apartment thrill of creating a home.

            I think I’ve figured it out: People in North America spent – wait for it -- $53 billion (as in billion) last year on marijuana. More, according to Business Insider, than at McDonald’s and Starbucks combined. Some of these sales are, of course, legal, perhaps nearly $7 billion of it. Most, not so much. But more than reefer madness, there are “weed-laced topicals, sprays and edibles,” reports the publication. The point the article makes is here’s a market, marketers, that doesn’t require radical consumer and trade ‘push’ to build demand. Nope, dope desire is already there. And building. Lurching one state at a time out of the closet and into legality.

            So, question for the week. If shoppers are having their cannabis and eating it too at home alone, how many changes of wardrobe do they need? How much social interaction, beyond a shared desire for munchies, is required. How best to reach them through the haze of their own fantasies with the promise of yours? When medical marijuana is simply defined, prescribed and purveyed as the zero-calorie, no-carb treatment of choice to relieve the confusions, polarizations, stains and strains of 21^st century American life, what else will consumers care to consume? Or is it not just retailing that’s in a swirl, but the heretofore unstated covenant governing the getting/spending role and responsibility of consumers in a consumer society. So marketers: As Timothy Leary also said, “You can’t use butterfly language to talk to a caterpillar.”

What the Dickens?

Last week’s post got some comment, especially from among literature majors. My reference to our “tale of two cities” country caused several folks to suggest a reordering of the first lines of the novel: This time around suggesting “It was the worst of times, it was the best of times.” The rest of course of the sentence can continue apace: “it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair…”

            While it is a bit heartening to read what Dickens was describing about the period of the French Revolution, it is shocking to see crumbling in real time that which used to be called “the pillars of society.” Belief in government, media, science, healthcare, organized religion, big business, the military, the intelligence community, American values, celebrity, retail commerce, education, police, technology, public opinion research: All in various stages of disarray. An epoch of incredulity, for sure.

            In what then can we believe in an age of foolishness? From whence will our hope spring? In literature (and certainly in marketing) there is the notion of ‘objective correlative,’ a symbol that objectifies an emotion. I suspect the symbol we’ll watch for signals of hope is the stock market. While most of the country does not have a direct stake in its climb, even the impoverished keep an eye on the numbers as a cue to where the economy is headed. Cracking 20,000 emerges as a piece of ‘real reality,’ unambiguous in its binary black and white certainty and going a long way to help otherwise worried citizens avert their gaze. For those who never fully recovered from the Great Recession, the metric that matters is not cause for yet another debate, but rather delivers much sought after clarity. In a sea of turbulent claims and counter claims, consumers seek an unambiguous North for our shared compass.

            We’re seeing and hearing it in our work. As in, “Well, I don’t know about XYZ, but my mutual fund has gone up by $12,000 just since the election!” While marches and demonstrations flare and call us to the barricades, as rhetoric and vitriol toggle our outrage back and forth, swinging from sincere belief to the muddled confusion sparked by something called ‘alternative facts,’ a rising stock market raises quite a few boats and hopes. It seems, for the moment at least, inured to rumor, innuendo and misconstrued interpretation. It’s not, of course, and even the French Revolution didn’t last forever. However, quite a few heads had to roll before Liberty, Equality and Fraternity prevailed over the Reign of Terror.

            The implication for big American businesses and brands? We’re thinking a surge of corporate “This We Believe” advertising, designed to encourage consumers to buy the company’s stock as well as its brands. Can tweets to direct to shoppers from corporate CEOs be far behind?

Time to Get Along -- Or Duke it Out, Big Brands?

A few months ago – or was it an eternity ago? – I wondered in this space about the unavoidable dynamic the combination of nasty, polarizing campaign rhetoric and stunning election results forces us to know about our own “Tale of Two Cities” country. Specifically, I thought there might be three areas of consumer marketing to watch.

·      First, would there be an escalation in the raw sharpness and harshness of directly comparative competitive advertising?

·      Second, would there be a decline in Kumbaya “despite our differences, we can all get along” one world, Cheerio-esque post-racial, Coke on a hilltop messaging?

·      Third, would manufacturers turn up the volume (and business strategies) on ‘made in America’ and ‘We’re returning jobs to America’ corporate umbrella campaigns?

            I heard back from a number of folks. The overwhelming consensus was a definite ‘maybe’ to the first two, but a resounding ‘duh’ to the third question. Sure enough, that’s about where we are. The jury’s out on nasty, comparison advertising. Microsoft’s “Art of Harmony” ad, coupled with Apple’s “Open Your Heart to Everyone” campaign may be vestiges of approaches designed for a different election outcome, but they aired nonetheless through the holidays. Up, down and seemingly over with now. But gorgeous and world affirming for that brief shining moment. And, of course: Lots of corporate spinning to take credit for the return of newly chic manufacturing jobs.

            So a new round of questions emerges. If we can’t trust polls and reporting on polls, what impact will mistrust/distrust/cynicism have on the people within corporations used to making brand and category decisions based on forward looking attitude and usage models, oftentimes created by the very firms whose political polling arms are now routinely vilified. Are we in a post-BASES world?  

·      Do we believe predictive models, or do we rely solely on ‘fact-based’ scanner data, which, while wonderfully accurate, is about as relevant to innovation and growth as using the rearview mirror is to driving a new car on a new road?

·      If our consumers disengage from mainstream national news outlets, firmly believing that it’s all #fakenews, then how do we provide credible, authoritative product information, when marketing itself is characteristically viewed as somewhere between hyperbolic and downright unreliable? Both content and context are suddenly up for grabs.

·      The populist appeal of ‘I think so because I think so and thus I get to say so,’ and ‘I read it on a website so it must be true’ segment of one reality, coupled with universal access to the internet already provokes scientists and nutritionists to state #fakescience stories are one of the most dangerous health risks consumers face. What’s a healthcare brand or indeed any brand to do about that?

            Answers, please! Send me your thoughts. Before, as we slouch towards a retro-defined world of American greatness, the business of figuring out ‘Who Do You Trust’ becomes ‘Mission Impossible.’

Now What, Big Retail?

There is much wringing of hands, gnashing of teeth and rending of garments as sales results (or lack thereof) are reported by the country’s major retailers. The big losers, it is tempting to think, are the big retailers and those malls which rely on them to anchor their destinations. Macy’s is in freefall, of course. That train left the station long ago. It's just chugging slowly, methodically along the track of supervised decline. Sears is another duh!. The answer these retail gurus posit: Close stores, lay-off staff, put more price pressure on vendors. In short, sell your unique reason for being, whether it's the Craftsman brand (quick cash for Sears) or service, location, selection and quality (Macy’s).

            I say, look rather at the winners. Costco is winning and not just because of pricing efficiency: It treats its sales associates respectfully, fairly and well. TJ Maxx is winning and not just because of pricing efficiency: It treats its vendors and customers respectfully, fairly and well. And, gee whiz, some of those mall developers who used to depend upon major retailers to bring traffic to their destinations are winning and not just because of pricing efficiencies based on lowering rents to their tenants: They are learning to re-rationalize their space and give customers what the Macy’s and Sears of the world won’t: Experience. As the big guys move out, they are re-imagining those holes in the once boilerplate footprint as eateries and cinemas.

            Those of us in the consulting space have been recommending for a decade at least that engagement, nay! enchantment is what real retail needs in order to compete with the efficiency and ease of on-line buying. We have been voices crying in the wilderness. Now, the wilderness is slouching nearer and nearer. Macy’s is closing 100 stores and laying off 10,000 people. That’s 10,000. Sears has even more store closings rumored. More people offed. These steps come at the exact time when human interactions can make a profound difference in our retail experience and, indeed, lives, as we shuttle from one place to another, shuffling through our play list and ignoring one another to the best of our ability.

            In our practice, our New Year’s resolution is to give up trying to crack these self-confident proponents of losing propositions, those retailers who are selling the counter-intuitive (and dumb) proposition that it's fully possible to shrink your way to growth, if you keep sponsoring parades and firework displays and thus attempt to use guilt and nostalgia to make people shop with you. (Note to Terry at Macy’s: You’re making it worse. Every time we watch Miracle on 34th Street and remember what you once were, we get even more of a nosebleed when we try to find a salesperson who can actually help us – and wants to – in your store.) Instead, we’re focusing on “Bright Spark Innovation,” e.g. we’re looking at what is working at a select roster of retailers willing to move good to better and better to best. Watch this space. 

Christmas Wish List: This is Ours. Yours too?

My Christmas Wish List

(Set to the Tune of 12 Days of Christmas, Please)

If any of these wishes are on your list too, think of us as Santa’s Helper: kate@katenewlin.com

First Day of Christmas 

One mega global client convinced mission and purpose will forge employees, channel partners and consumer passion in support of its brands – and yet frustrated that ignition has not produced lift off

Second Day of Christmas

Two pharmaceutical companies ready to acknowledge the detail force sales strategy isn’t working – and won’t ever work the way it used to again

Third Day of Christmas 

Three private equity concerns watching their branded manufacturing companies’ sales decline because retail options are drying up – and seeking to innovate (not price promote) out of the doldrums

Fourth Day of Christmas

Four Big Pharma firms ready to figure out patient compliance in the pursuit of permanent margin

Fifth Day of Christmas

Five retail ventures eager to figure out how to attract real shoppers back to real locations

Sixth Day of Christmas

Six HABA brands seeking to end the promise/promotion death spiral

Seventh Day of Christmas

Seven hotel and airline companies wishing to end their frequent flyer programs and don’t know how

Eighth Day of Christmas

Eight weight loss brands seeking to end the promise/promotion death spiral (sound familiar)

Ninth Day of Christmas

Nine luxe retail brands. Just because Howard Schultz is always on to something

10th Day of Christmas

10 Big Juicy CPG Brands ready to grow sales and margin by igniting Brand Passion

11th Day of Christmas

11 Agencies with clients with (thus far) intractable strategic challenges

12th Day of Christmas 

Passion Branding through Intellectual Honesty and Rigor for All

– and to all a Good Night

Memories in the (Disintermediated) Making

Several years ago, the prevalent term of ‘business art’ was ‘disintermediation.’ I heard it first in a series of meetings about health care and life insurance and it heralded the demise of the traditional agent. We all know how that story has and continues to play out: Zenefits, anyone?

            I am put in mind of the term again by my recent Christmas card order, via Shutterfly.com, my go-to repository for nearly every photo ever taken of my daughter in her 17-years thus far. The order went in and pretty soon the package arrived. The envelopes had the correct return address. The cards themselves had the pictures and inscription done precisely as I had designed it. Where once our cards would have been a boxed set from a local card shop, or a far more expensive custom printing job from a local printing firm, whoosh! here it was. Custom stamps, as well.

            But then, what to my wondering eyes should appear but something else in the bright orange envelope. Upon closer inspection: Envelope liners. I had asked for the envelopes to be lined and had picked out the design, as well. But, I was now being asked to insert and seal the liners myself. Something of a surprise.

            At first, I was irritated, I have to admit. But, as I went through a once-a-year evening ritual of addressing the cards, writing notes and, yes, affixing the liners, something very Esty, very craftsy, very charming, bespoke, even homemade took hold. As I worked, I watched the BBC version of Pride & Prejudice (via Amazon Prime, where I am my own network programmer) and caught myself doing something, well, handy, if not quite needlepoint, along with the characters. I awaited the opportunity to plate the GrubHub delivery of two very different dinners for my daughter and me. I wondered anew at the disintermediated world as it is evolving. Is the challenge for new product development to figure out today’s equivalent of adding my egg to the cake mix?